🇪🇸 Deportivo La Coruña v 🇪🇸 Elche

The 26/27 La Liga season kicked off this weekend as a few teams started their campaigns for the new season.

The Monday night matchup features newcomers and runners-up of La Liga 2 (25/26) Deportivo La Coruña, pitted against last season's newcomers, and surprise survivors of the 25/26 season — Elche.

Elche — too much lost

Elche led by their manager Éder Sarabia escaped the drop last season after being promoted the year prior, something La Coruña will be looking to do this year. Éder Sarabia's played attractive football that operated out of a 4-3-3 relying on intelligent movement from his center-forwards to free fullbacks in wide areas or create 1v1's in favorable areas. Wide attackers sat narrower to play off the center forwards while also making opposing defenders choose between coming narrower or marking the wide attacking fullback.

Progression relied on bravery with the ball playing from the back. The keeper was key to their build-up joining the center-back duo and creating a back three and usually freeing a center-back to progress from. The center forwards of Elche last year Álvaro Rodríguez, Rafa Mir, and André Silva were physically dominant and technically able to bring the ball down under pressure, pin defenders, and play on the ground if needed.

But the 26/27 summer transfer window has been rough on them. They've lost Álvaro Rodríguez to Bournemouth (who I liken to Darwin Núñez), Rafa Mir's loan finished, and André Silva left on a free to Porto. As well, La Masia prospect Héctor Fort did not come back to the club after his loan. For me this is way too much to lose, and specifically way too many goals leaving the club.

Their marquee signings have been playmaker Facundo Buonanotte from Brighton on loan, and forward Ezequiel Ponce from Houston Dynamo on a free contract. They also brought attackers; 19-year-old Tiziano Perrotta from Banfield in Argentina who is largely unknown to me, and 25-year-old target-man Fer Niño from Burgos in La Liga 2.

I do not believe the business Elche has done this summer is good enough to replace what has left the club. This may be a tough season for Éder Sarabia and his men as his brave style of football may not see as much success with less physically gifted and technical forwards this year.

Deportivo La Coruña — great vibes, great business

Deportivo La Coruña are back in the top flight of Spain for the first time since 17/18. They are managed by Antonio Hidalgo who will be managing in La Liga for the first time after guiding his La Coruña side to a 2nd place finish and automatic promotion spot in La Liga 2 last season.

I am not going to pretend to know too much about how he will manage this season as the newly promoted side. But from last season he will most likely return to his 4-2-3-1 which is focused around freeing up his wingers and allowing them to exist as outlets without the ball. A strong and stable double pivot which is comfortable with their back to goal, and allowing his attackers less structure, because of this rigid midfield and defense.

He also has played back threes (or fives) in the past with Huesca and in early days at La Coruña. He may decide to turn to that more often in games this season against better opposition, but out of the gates in front of the home crowd I'm sure he will want to play his style.

This La Coruña is very similar to the Elche side from last season. The club feels like it has great vibes surrounding it coming into the season, has a rookie manager who will have his team ready to be brave with the ball, and most importantly have done some great business this summer.

Headlined by 37-year-old Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille, who from pre-season matches seems to still have some burst left, La Coruña has done well this summer. Key players from last season stayed put, which keeps the team cohesion high, adding veterans such as Aubameyang and 29-year-old left-back Angeliño from Roma on loan who can contribute at a high level and bring pedigree. 25-year-old Leo Ramón was signed for €9m from Mallorca (La Liga 2) to start in goal as well.

La Coruña also invested in exciting young players who can contribute immediately. 21-year-old midfielder Teun Gijselhert from De Graafschap and 22-year-old midfielder Lorenzo Amatucci featured heavily in preseason. Coruña also beat out Lazio to the signing of Bayern starlet; 20-year-old attacking midfielder Jonathan Asp Jensen who had a great loan spell at Grasshoppers in the Swiss top flight last season but has been injured to start the season but starts tonight. And finally, and maybe most exciting, 19-year-old Bright Ede; a central defender brought in for €6m from Motor Lublin in Poland has been starting most matches in preseason.

The match

Tonight the match is in La Coruña and the home fans will be rocking. La Coruña has done superior business to Elche; retaining talent and bringing in top-flight level players to help their survival campaign. Elche have a lot of new faces, have lost a lot of talent, and I'm not sure if they have done the business to fill the gaps left by players who were critical last season.

I think Coruña will come out on top in this one but I'm not a big fan of the pricing, as I don't fully trust them as a favorite — but there are some great player spots that I have found.

The bets

Amatucci drew a hell of a lot of fouls in La Liga 2 last season, the books have taken notice and priced his "fouls won" properly but understanding how players react to situations we can find weak spots, and Ali Houary is largely inexperienced, commits lots of fouls, and is well priced:

Ali Houary Booking @ 15/4 (Bet365) — 0.4u

Giacomo Quagliata starts at left-back for Coruña, he will be isolated wide often with Asp Jensen drifting inside. This will give him more defensive responsibility with less help coming from a wide tracking midfielder, against an Elche right-back in Buba Sangaré who stays high and wide in possession. Lots of 1v1s incoming, and great pricing:

Giacomo Quagliata Booking @ 4/1 (Bet365) — 0.4u

And for a bit of fun, at a good price, in a low scoring game where we may see a penalty…

Aubameyang first goalscorer @ 5/1 (Bet365) — 0.2u

Total risk: 1u