Today in Football 24/09/26
Matches in Focus
- 🇷🇸 Serbia v 🇬🇷 Greece — UEFA Nations League A
- 🇳🇴 Norway v 🇩🇰 Denmark — UEFA Nations League A
- 🇳🇱 Netherlands v 🇩🇪 Germany — UEFA Nations League A
- 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast v 🇬🇭 Ghana — AFCON Qualifying
- Parlays
Yesterday in Review
I've been away dealing with family matters these past few weeks, hence the quiet. That's settled now. PPP is back.
🇷🇸 Serbia v 🇬🇷 Greece
Nations League A Group 2 · Belgrade · 19:45
These two have met twice since Serbia became an independent nation in 2006, and both were friendlies: Serbia 0-1 Greece in Belgrade on 11 August 2010, and Greece 0-2 Serbia in Chania on 18 November 2014. Three goals across the pair, and both went under 2.5. Thursday is their first competitive meeting, and their first meeting of any kind in almost twelve years. I can see this one getting feisty, and hopefully blood being spilled. Greece are managed by a Serb: Ivan Jovanović has had the job since 2024.
Neither side went to the World Cup. Serbia last played on 4 June, Greece on 7 June — both around sixteen weeks idle, both opening a new cycle cold. This should have the feel of a big match, as most do in Belgrade. Both teams are made of fighters and hard workers, and they are both nations ready to start this international cycle right. That being said, they would have had one practice in the last couple of months, and with new players and new ideas around the team I can't foresee much fluidity to the game.
Greece have played four matches in 2026 and scored two goals: 0-1 Paraguay, 0-0 Hungary, 2-2 Sweden, 0-1 Italy. Under 2.5 landed in three of the four, and they failed to score in three of the four. Across Serbia's last eleven Nations League and World Cup qualifying matches, under 2.5 landed seven times, including 0-0 with Denmark, 0-0 in Albania, a 0-1 home defeat to Albania and a 1-0 win in Latvia.
Their 2026 friendlies did the opposite. Spain 3-0, Serbia 2-1 Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde 3-0, Mexico 5-1 — three goals or more in every one. The heavy ones came against Spain, Mexico and Cape Verde, and against England they lost 0-5 at home. When Serbia are outclassed they leak goals, but Greece are not that level. And both teams will be looking to stay defensively sound and structurally solid while they work out attacking fluidity.
The one thing that may come into play is that both teams have very in-form attackers. Dušan Vlahović is balling for his new club Beşiktaş, after four years at Juventus — five goals in four Süper Lig appearances since the move, on top of 16 goals in 41 caps for Serbia. Vangelis Pavlidis has been even hotter for Greece: eight goals and two assists in the league, which makes him the Primeira Liga's outright top scorer, and 14 goals in all competitions for a Benfica side sitting second in Portugal. He is averaging a match rating of 8.44, the best of any striker in the Primeira Liga.
Christos Tzolis brings nine goals in 34 caps for Greece since his debut in August 2020, and at club level his goal column badly undersells him. It reads zero since his summer move from Club Brugge to Arsenal, but he has four assists across all competitions: two in the 3-0 Community Shield win over Manchester City, where he rated 8.7, then one each in back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Napoli in early September. His form has cooled in the last fortnight — quiet against Sunderland and Brighton, a 16.7% dribble success rate and eight chances created, which ranks joint-23rd in the Premier League — but a player with four assists in six weeks is not out of form.
But all three have been playing and training with their clubs for months now without a thought towards international football, and even the most in-form attackers should struggle to link with new team-mates.
⚽ Serbia/Greece U2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (Bet365) — 1.5u
⚽ Serbia/Greece Draw & Both Teams 2+ Cards & U3 Goals @ 25/4 (Bet365) — 0.25u
⚽ Serbia/Greece U2.5 Goals & Draw @ 3/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Follow @PlayrPropPerson for lineup-based picks.
🇳🇴 Norway v 🇩🇰 Denmark
Nations League A Group 4 · Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo · 19:45
Erling Haaland has 62 goals in 55 caps for Norway, a rate of 1.13 per appearance. He is their all-time top scorer and the sixth player in history to reach 50 international goals inside 50 games — he did it in 46. And yes, everyone knows how insane all of this is, you do not need to be a genius to figure out what I'm about to tell you to bet 😂
Norway won all eight matches to reach the World Cup and end a 28-year absence, and Haaland scored in every single one of them, finishing with 16 goals — the best in UEFA qualifying and double the tally of Harry Kane, Memphis Depay or Marko Arnautović.
Norway reached the World Cup quarter-final. They beat Iraq 4-1, beat Senegal 3-2, lost 1-4 to France, beat Ivory Coast 2-1, beat Brazil 2-1, and went out 1-2 after extra time to England on 11 July. Haaland scored seven goals across the tournament and was named in the Dream XI. That quarter-final is Norway's best-ever World Cup finish, and they climbed twelve places to 19th in the FIFA ranking on 20 July.
Martin Ødegaard came out of that tournament and has carried the form into the season with Arsenal, the reigning Premier League champions. He leads the Premier League for chances created with 12, and created six in a single match away at Napoli on 9 September — a 0-1 win in which he also scored the only goal, 15 minutes from time, to open Arsenal's Champions League campaign. He has four goals in his first five games, already past last season's entire league tally after an injury-wrecked campaign, and has been described as a player transformed. He scored in the 3-0 Community Shield win over Manchester City, again in the 3-0 opening-day win over Coventry City, and then the winner in a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on 6 September.
Against qualifying-level opposition Norway are relentless: 37 goals in eight qualifiers, an average of 4.6 a game, with three or more in seven of the eight, including 11-1 against Moldova, 5-0 against Israel and 4-1 away to Italy — Italy's first ever home defeat in a World Cup qualifying group match. Against World Cup opposition they were far more contained: across all ten matches of 2026 they scored 18 goals, managing three or more in only three of the ten. Denmark sit somewhere between those two poles.
Denmark missed the World Cup. They lost the play-off final to the Czech Republic on 31 March, 2-2 after extra time and 3-1 on penalties. Their last match was a 2-1 friendly win over Ukraine on 7 June — 109 days ago — against a Norway side that played seven times across June and July. Denmark's last five totals were 6, 4, 4, 0 and 3.
Yes, I do like Norway ML, but the price at 3/4 is short for a good footballing nation in Denmark. That said, Norway are the more in-form team, have more cohesion, and have played together more recently. Haaland is an anomaly and it doesn't matter who is behind him, he will find the back of the net — the price not being something like 1/2 for him to score shocked me. He also has Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa (nine goals in 30 caps, RB Leipzig) and Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica), who are all young, stars in their own right, and all playing well. Norway could go crazy here in this battle of Vikings.
🇳🇴 Haaland Anytime Goal @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 2.25u
⚽ Norway TT O2.5 Goals @ 2/1 (Bet365) — 0.5u
🇳🇴 Haaland 2+ Goals @ 7/2 (Bet365) — 0.25u
⚽ Norway Win & O3 Goals & Haaland 2+ @ 21/4 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Follow @PlayrPropPerson for lineup-based picks.
🇳🇱 Netherlands v 🇩🇪 Germany
Nations League A Group 2 · Amsterdam · 19:45
This is Jürgen Klopp's first match in charge of Germany. He was appointed on 15 August and has already made waves in the international arena, attending club training sessions, attempting to de-politicise the German flag, and naming a 44-player, two-team German roster — not an A and a B side, but a genuine attempt to see as many players as possible. Karim Adeyemi is in the half named for the first two matches, against the Netherlands and Greece. Florian Wirtz and Nick Woltemade are in the other half, so neither is available here, which thins out the competition for attacking places considerably and makes selection a little more predictable. Exciting times for a German national team that has largely underperformed in recent big tournaments even though they are crazy talented.
The Netherlands have a new manager too. Ronald Koeman resigned a day after the Morocco defeat — the country's earliest ever World Cup exit — and in August the Dutch hired Xavi on a four-year contract, making him their first foreign coach since 1978. He was appointed on 12 August. His managerial record is strong: 102 matches at Al Sadd for a 65.69% win rate, winning the Qatar Stars League and three domestic cups, then 142 matches at Barcelona for 62.68%, winning La Liga in 2022-23 and the Supercopa de España in 2023.
Two big-name managers make their international debuts for two huge footballing nations, both known for expansive, front-foot, exciting football. This game should have goals galore, as both teams will feel more comfortable in attacking shapes.
Xavi will be introducing his high line, and defending was the weak point of the Barcelona side he ran from 2021 to 2024. They defended high up the pitch and were caught on the counter when the press was breached, with opponents finding joy in the space behind by running at them from the second line rather than off the striker. The offside trap never really clicked either: his Barcelona won 2.69 offsides a game in 2023-24. The same side under Hansi Flick a season later won 6.8 a match.
Klopp will be implementing the gegenpress he is famous for. He first took the idea at Mainz from Wolfgang Frank, who coached him there as a player between 1995 and 2000, and from Arrigo Sacchi — in his own words, “I've never met Sacchi, but I learned everything I am as a coach from him and my former coach, who took it from Sacchi.” He then built it into something else entirely at Borussia Dortmund, where it became known as heavy metal football and delivered back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2010-11 and 2011-12, the 2012 DFB-Pokal to complete a double, and a run to the 2013 Champions League final — which he lost 2-1 to Bayern Munich at Wembley, Arjen Robben scoring in the 89th minute. He carried it to Liverpool in 2015. He will be keeping an eye on who works hard out of possession and who can affect the game in transition after winning the ball back — which is literally Adeyemi.
Adeyemi moved to Barcelona this summer for a reported €29 million on a five-year deal, and scored on his debut in a 5-0 away win on 23 August. He has three goals in eight appearances there, after 10 in 39 at Dortmund last season. For Germany he has 11 caps and one goal. That isn't the best record, but I think he will end up being one of the main players for Klopp for years to come. His game is pace in behind and pressing from the front, which is the profile Klopp has built his front lines around everywhere he has worked. On top of that, Adeyemi has levelled up since the move to Barcelona, which is turning out to be the deal of the window. Constant competition with Anthony Gordon on the left has helped too. Gordon has four assists in his first four La Liga matches, a mark only Cesc Fàbregas and Luis Suárez have managed for Barcelona this century, and double the two assists he registered in 26 Premier League games at Newcastle last season. He is rating 7.5 a game with 89.8% passing accuracy and three big chances created. That is the level Adeyemi is measured against in training every week. More goals and assists will come, for Barcelona and for Germany.
Germany's last eight read 4-3 in Switzerland, 2-1 Ghana, 4-0 Finland and 2-1 in the United States, then 7-1 Curaçao, 2-1 Ivory Coast and 1-2 Ecuador in the World Cup group they still topped, and the 1-1 with Paraguay that ended the tournament.
The Netherlands' last eight read 2-1 Norway, 1-1 Ecuador, 0-1 Algeria, 2-1 Uzbekistan, 2-2 Japan, 5-1 Sweden, 3-1 Tunisia, and the 1-1 with Morocco that ended theirs.
Both went out in the Round of 32 on 29 June, both after 1-1 draws, both on penalties. Neither has played since. Obviously though, it's a new cycle with new managers. Germany have gone over 3.5 in three of those eight and the Netherlands in three of eight as well — six of sixteen between them, which is 37.5% against a price implying a shade under half. The case for it isn't the history, it's the two new managers and the shapes they're about to put out.
There will be more picks for this match based on lineups, so stay tuned.
🇩🇪 Adeyemi Goal or Assist @ 6/5 (Bet365) — 1u
⚽ Netherlands/Germany O3.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Bet365) — 1u
Follow @PlayrPropPerson for lineup-based picks.
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast v 🇬🇭 Ghana
AFCON Qualifying Group C · Bouaké Stadium, Bouaké · 20:00
AFCON qualifiers are happening alongside the Nations League and honestly it's much more meaningful football, so I'm sure more plays will be coming from Africa over the next couple of weeks. This is matchday one of the group, alongside Gambia and Somalia, so there is no qualifying form for either side yet — which is why there's only the one play from AFCON today.
Ghana scored two goals in four World Cup matches: 1-0 Panama, 0-0 England, 1-2 Croatia and 0-1 to Colombia in the Round of 32. Under 2.5 landed in three of those four. Widen it out and under 2.5 has landed in ten of Ghana's last fourteen across all competitions.
Ivory Coast also went out in the Round of 32. They beat Ecuador 1-0, lost 1-2 to Germany, beat Curaçao 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Norway — five goals in four matches, under 2.5 in two of them, but very different environments and situations.
Neither side scored more than twice in any match at the World Cup, and both have been idle since the end of June. Big matches in Africa just have a tendency to have no real flow to them. These two are among the biggest, most historic and best teams in Africa, and they help carry the torch for a continent close to breaking through at the highest peaks of football. This is their 38th meeting, and it is Ghana who lead the all-time record, 15 wins to 10 with 13 draws. What matters here is how those games tend to go: the 2015 AFCON final was 0-0 after 120 minutes before Ivory Coast took the shootout 9-8, and the last time they met, a friendly on 12 June 2021, also finished 0-0. Ivory Coast are the more talented side going forward right now and they are at home in Bouaké, which helps. But in a big match that actually has meaning, for two teams hoping for a strong start to a new cycle, this will have a big-game-in-Africa feel to it.
Bouaké is 24°C at kick-off with humidity at 95%, almost no wind, and a 78% chance of rain. Hot, heavy, wet and gross. I can easily see this ending 0-0 or 1-1.
⚽ Ivory Coast/Ghana U2.5 Goals @ 13/20 (Bet365) — 2u
⚽ Ivory Coast/Ghana U2.5 Goals & Draw @ 10/3 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Follow @PlayrPropPerson for lineup-based picks.
Parlays
Just really like all these combos. Come on PPP, let's go crazy.
⚽ Haaland Anytime & Adeyemi G/A @ 3.80 (Bet365) — 0.5u
⚽ Serbia/Greece U2.5 & Ivory Coast/Ghana U2.5 & Netherlands/Germany O2.5 & Norway/Denmark O2.5 @ 6.69 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Follow @PlayrPropPerson for lineup-based picks.
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.
Total staked: 10.5u . For The Love Of The Game.
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