Chengdu & Hangzhou — Round of 32 24/09/26
Matches in Focus
- Jaime Faria v Terence Atmane — Hangzhou R32
- Rinky Hijikata v Dalibor Svrcina — Hangzhou R32
- Aleksandr Shevchenko v Hubert Hurkacz — Chengdu R32
Yesterday in Review
I've been away dealing with family matters these past few weeks, hence the quiet. That's settled now. PPP is back.
Faria v Atmane
Hangzhou R32 · 06:30 UK · first on Centre Court
- 🇵🇹 Jaime Faria — No. 68, aged 23 · 2026: 14–10 · career on tour: holds 78%, breaks 19%, wins 73% of first-serve points and 35% of return points
- 🇫🇷 Terence Atmane — No. 83, aged 24 · 2026: 16–21 · career on tour: holds 80%, breaks 16%, wins 74% of first-serve points and 32% of return points
Over the past year on hard Faria is breaking 21.9% against Atmane's 15.6%, with Atmane 15–18 (45%) and Faria 16–11 (59%) in that window.
Atmane breaks serve in 16% of return games — the lowest figure across both draws. He holds at 80%. He is left-handed.
Atmane's last completed match was 30 August, a five-set US Open first-round loss to 🇪🇸 Jaume Munar (6-7 3-6 6-1 7-6 7-5) — 25 days without competitive tennis, and he has never played this tournament. Faria played on 19 September in the Davis Cup, beating 🇵🇹 Cruz 6-2 6-2 without dropping serve.
Faria's 2026 has been the better season: 14–10 against 16–21. He beat 🇺🇸 Jenson Brooksby 6-3 7-6 4-6 1-6 6-2 at the US Open, took a set off 🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz, and beat 🇦🇺 Adam Walton 4-6 6-4 7-6 in Cincinnati.
It is 32°C on Centre Court at first serve. Hot air is thinner, so the ball flies faster and sits up higher, and the physical cost of a long match climbs.
Atmane has a good ceiling but I don't think he will be near it today.
H2H: 0–0 at tour level
🇵🇹 Faria ML @ 6/5 (Bet365) — 1u
Hijikata v Svrcina
Hangzhou R32 · ~07:30 UK · second on Court 2
- 🇦🇺 Rinky Hijikata — No. 82, aged 25 · 2026: 14–18 · career on tour: holds 74%, breaks 20%, wins 69% of first-serve points and 36% of return points
- 🇨🇿 Dalibor Svrcina — No. 128, aged 23 · 2026: 6–8 · career on tour: holds 63%, breaks 31%, wins 65% of first-serve points and 42% of return points
Past year on hard: Hijikata holding 76.7% and breaking 25.9%, Svrcina holding 68.6% and breaking 31.8%.
Svrcina is broken in roughly a third of his service games on both measures. Between them they have 9.8% aces combined over the past year — the lowest-serving pair across the draw.
Hijikata is 15–7 (68%) in hard-court tiebreaks and 24–14 in tiebreaks overall.
Dalibor is fresh and Rinky isn't. Svrcina has come through qualifying here in the last two days, beating Sekulic 6-3 6-2 and Noguchi 6-4 6-1 — ten games dropped across two matches — and before that qualified at the US Open and won a five-setter in the first round. Hijikata has not hit a competitive ball since 1 September, a four-set loss to 🇨🇦 Félix Auger-Aliassime. That is 22 days off. I think their level is even.
The breeze on Court 2 builds through the afternoon, from around 8 km/h at the start to 15–17 km/h by mid-match. No roof, wind disrupts serve, and these are the two lowest-serving players in the draw.
I love a lil bit of Rinky but I just don't trust him enough to take him ML. I do think this will be tight and well contested, the conditions back it, and both players should be giving their full effort.
H2H: 0–0 at tour level
🎾 Hijikata/Svrcina O21.5 Games @ 4/5 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Shevchenko v Hurkacz
Chengdu R32 · ~09:00–10:00 UK · third on Centre Court
- 🇰🇿 Aleksandr Shevchenko — No. 109, aged 25 · 2026: 12–17 · career on tour: holds 74%, breaks 19%, wins 69% of first-serve points and 36% of return points
- 🇵🇱 Hubert Hurkacz — No. 46, aged 29 · 2026: 17–17 · career on tour: holds 87%, breaks 17%, wins 77% of first-serve points and 35% of return points
Past year on hard for Hurkacz: 87.8% hold, 15.8% break, 16.8% aces, 13–11 (54%), tiebreaks 7–9 (44%). Shevchenko over the same window on hard: 79.4% hold, 15.0% break, 14–20 (41%), and tiebreaks 11–9 (55%).
Hurkacz holds 87% and breaks 17%. A player who breaks that rarely has to win tiebreaks to win in straight sets, and he is 7–9 in hard-court tiebreaks over the past year. Shevchenko is 18–15 (55%) in his.
Shevchenko holds 79.4% on hard himself, and breaks 15.0%.
A former world No. 6 at 17–17 for the year. His only silverware since the summer came at Challenger level — the Cancún Challenger on 24 August, beating 🇦🇷 Sebastián Báez 4-6 6-0 6-3 in the final.
He has not played since 2 September — a four-set US Open loss to 🇺🇸 Ben Shelton. That is 21 days off.
Shevchenko is not in form either. He is 12–17 for the year and 10–12 on hard. His most recent tennis was the Davis Cup on 18–19 September, where he beat 🇬🇧 Matthew Jones and then lost to 🇹🇭 Kasidit Samrej 1-6 6-2 6-3.
Chengdu is sitting at 25°C with humidity around 70% and almost no wind when they walk on. Damp air slows the ball down. Hurkacz hits 16.8% aces, Shevchenko 9.3%.
Look, Shevchenko is not someone I like to go crazy on, especially against Huby, who at his highest level is miles above him. But I've had a lot of success fading Huby this year and I feel like I have a good read on his matches right now — I could see him struggling out the gate. I don't have the balls to go on Shevy ML, but I could see a first-set steal.
H2H: Hurkacz leads 4–0 at tour level
🇰🇿 Shevchenko +4.5 Games @ 4/6 (Bet365) — 1.75u
🇰🇿 Shevchenko 1st Set ML @ 11/4 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.
Total staked: 4.5u . For The Love Of The Game.
Comments
Loading comments…