Today in Tennis 23/08/26
Matches in Focus
Fils v Tiafoe
Two players looking for their first-ever ATP 1000 title, and two players playing some of the best tennis of their careers. Both are coming off injuries but have looked like they are peaking right before the US Open. On a personal level, these two are a couple of my favourite players on tour — the best characters and the best entertainers.
Fils missed most of the year, with a couple of reappearances over the last few months as he rehabbed his hip and back. In the last month he has started playing more tournaments, and in Cincy he has really found his stride. He has the potential to win a Grand Slam in his career, and he is showing it again here. He is smooth, a great returner and mover, but with a sneaky-good serve. His serving numbers in the tournament so far have been great, winning 75-80% of first-serve points against historically great returners like de Minaur and Cobolli. He comes in a big betting favourite, as his ceiling is higher than Tiafoe's.
But this is a different Tiafoe, and he has been all year. In what would undoubtedly be his best season on tour, this would cap it off in style and send him into a home-nation Grand Slam brimming with confidence. His mentality has really carried him through, especially against Nakashima last round. He has been disrespected (in my opinion) by the bookies at this tournament, and once again he is an underdog here in the final.
I do personally think Fils's game is too good for Big Foe in Cincy. But the line for Fils ML is way too big to take (4/9), especially with Tiafoe playing the way he is and the confidence he currently has. I think Fils wins this over a long match — both will be giving everything for it:
1st Set Over 9.5 Games @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.5u
1st Set Over 12.5 Games @ 3/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Fils to Win 2-1 @ 3/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Winston-Salem — 3-Leg Parlay
Three Round-of-64 matches at the ATP 250 in Winston-Salem, rolled into one moneyline parlay.
Brooksby v Perricard
Recent form from Brooksby, and serve-bot status for Perricard, keeps the line closer than it really should be — Brooksby is the vastly superior player. I was considering taking it straight, but a sour taste in my mouth from past bets on Brooksby made me stay cautious.
Hijikata v Blanch
Rinky (Hijikata) is a vastly superior player, whose recent form has not been bad and whose game suits the hard courts. Blanch has played horribly recently, and the vibes from his side have just been low. Hijikata is building steam for the US Open, where Blanch has absolutely no rhythm whatsoever.
Wu v Comesaña
As infuriating as it can be to watch Wu because of his consistency issues, this is an absolute no-brainer. Wu's favourite surface, Comesaña's worst. Only two wins all year for Comesaña on hard courts, including three straight losses to beatable opposition.
3-Leg ML Parlay @ 3.40 (Bet365) — 0.5u
🇺🇸 Brooksby ML · 🇦🇺 Hijikata ML · 🇨🇳 Wu ML
Total staked: 2.5u . Scouted, not guessed.
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