Today in Tennis 21/08/26
Matches in Focus
- Lorenzo Musetti v Frances Tiafoe — Cincinnati QF
- Roman Safiullin v Hubert Hurkacz — Cancún Challenger
- Moez Echargui v Moïse Kouamé — Cancún Challenger
- Taro Daniel v Jacob Fearnley — Québec Challenger
Musetti v Tiafoe
In a wide-open draw, this is going to be one of the most fun matches of the tournament. Tiafoe is playing probably the best tennis of his career this season and bouncing back from his wrist injury well. He has beaten some big names on his way to the 1000 QF, such as fellow American Learner Tien and FAA. His energy feels right, and his mentality is peaking at the right time. The crowd is also desperately behind him.
Musetti is also coming back from injury. He always feels like the most underappreciated player on tour. When he is on his game, it is undeniably smooth and orgasmic to watch. He also has everything in his locker. For him, this tournament has been incredibly important, because he has been able to remind himself, the players on tour, and the fans of what his top level looks like. In contrast to Tiafoe, he hasn't played many big names on his route to the QF, beating Daniel Altmaier, qualifier Michael Zheng, and qualifier Jaime Faria. The easy draw may have been exactly what Musetti needed going into the US Open.
At their absolute highest level, and under different circumstances, I would probably be taking Musetti in what feels like a "pick-em" type match. But the positive energy, physical shape, and desire from Tiafoe in front of a home crowd is there. He will feel like this is an opportunity to advance to a Masters 1000 semi-final and maybe even win a 1000 event. Musetti has played well but has yet to see this level of opponent in the tournament, while Tiafoe has been dealing with tough draws for a couple of rounds now:
Tiafoe ML @ 1/1 (Bet365) — 1u
Safiullin v Hurkacz
Two men who can serve the ball with the best of them. Safi took a long break after Wimbledon, which seems to have done him good, as he comes back pre-US Open looking sharp on the hard courts. Last night he took out Stan Wawrinka in two sets, and his service game looked unstoppable. Stan couldn't get close to Saf, and he looked in control the whole match.
Hubi, on the other hand, had an absolute rollercoaster affair with Portuguese man Henrique Rocha, winning 6-2, 4-6, 6-4. Hubi's serve looked great at times, but it abandoned him in some moments. He also placed some incredible shots from different areas of the court, but at other times the ball was flying around.
Saf is playing a bit more composed and under control than Hubi. It has also been a tough year for Hurkacz, and I see him getting down on himself more often than in past years. Saf also has slightly better movement than Hubi, who can be flat-footed. Hurkacz can be prone to long, closer matches because of his style, and today, against another good server, that is only enhanced. Love Saf today:
Safiullin +2.5 Games @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 2u
Safiullin ML @ 13/8 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Neither Player to Break Serve — 1st Set @ 21/10 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Echargui v Kouame
Kouamé is understandably one of the most hyped young players on tour, having broken through as a 16-year-old. He is 17 now and has been balling on hard courts (13-2) this year. For his age and level, this is a great tournament in which to have notched a couple of wins. He is currently being coached by recently retired legend Richard Gasquet, which has improved his game. His first-serve win rate has been around 78% this tournament.
Moez, on the other end of the spectrum, is 33 years old and has not had a great year on the hard courts (4-10). This is one of his worst years to date, especially on hard courts, where he usually thrives. But over the last couple of days his game has picked up some steam, and the Tunisian veteran has a couple of decent wins against Finnish #1 Otto Virtanen and Ugo Carabelli (who retired right before losing in two sets). His first-serve win rate is around 70%. Moez at his best is a good ball-striker from the baseline and likes to get ahead of points.
The age gap and the uptick in recent form make Echargui a decent shout at these odds. While Kouamé has been playing incredibly well and is ultra-talented, I think experience — and a desire to keep his career going — will prevail over youth today:
Echargui ML @ 2/1 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Daniel v Fearnley
I don't think Daniel deserves to be this kind of underdog today. Hard courts have been his best surface, and he is playing well with six wins in a row. I have watched Fearnley a bunch and don't think he deserves to be a big favourite against someone who has a good top level and is playing the best he has all season. Fearnley can also be wildly uninterested and inconsistent:
Daniel +3.5 Games @ 5/6 (Bet365) — 1u
Total staked: 5.5u across four matches. Scouted, not guessed.
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